← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #5
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #5
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Rile | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scorching Imperilment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |